The Game Awards land Thursday night, and this year's ceremony is basically a coronation. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 arrives with 12 nominations, the most in the show's history, and after sweeping the Golden Joysticks last month, the French indie RPG has the kind of momentum that's hard to stop.

But momentum doesn't always translate into clean sweeps. Voters like spreading recognition around, and there are a few categories where the competition's legitimately tight. So rather than just assume Expedition 33 takes everything, let's actually think through where the wins land.

Here's my call for Thursday night.

Game of the YearExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best Game DirectionSplit FictionActual Winner:

Best NarrativeExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best Art DirectionHollow Knight: SilksongActual Winner:

Best Score and MusicExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best Audio DesignExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best PerformanceBen Starr (Expedition 33)Actual Winner:

The technical and craft categories are where Expedition 33 built its case. But the next batch is where things get interesting, because this is where other studios have genuine shots.

Innovation in AccessibilitySouth of MidnightActual Winner:

Games for ImpactLost RecordsActual Winner:

Best Ongoing GameHelldivers 2Actual Winner:

Best Community SupportHelldivers 2Actual Winner:

Best Independent GameExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best Debut Indie GameExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Genre categories are where voters usually respect what each game does best rather than just picking the biggest name. That's why I'm not calling a clean sweep here.

Best Mobile GameWuthering WavesActual Winner:

Best VR/ARThe Midnight WalkActual Winner:

Best Action GameHades 2Actual Winner:

Best Action/AdventureHollow Knight: SilksongActual Winner:

Best RPGExpedition 33Actual Winner:

Best Fighting Game2XKOActual Winner:

Best Family GameDonkey Kong BananzaActual Winner:

Best Sim/StrategyThe AltersActual Winner:

Best Sports/RacingMario Kart WorldActual Winner:

Best MultiplayerSplit FictionActual Winner:

And then there's everything else.

Best AdaptationThe Last of Us Season 2Actual Winner:

Most AnticipatedGrand Theft Auto VIActual Winner:

Content Creator of the YearTheBurntPeanutActual Winner:

Player's VoiceExpedition 33Actual Winner:

If this plays out the way I'm calling it, Expedition 33 takes somewhere around 9 wins out of 12 nominations. The alternative is that voters decide to spread things around more than expected, which would honestly make for a more interesting night.