The Game Awards land Thursday night, and this year's ceremony is basically a coronation. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 arrives with 12 nominations, the most in the show's history, and after sweeping the Golden Joysticks last month, the French indie RPG has the kind of momentum that's hard to stop.

But momentum doesn't always translate into clean sweeps. Voters like spreading recognition around, and there are a few categories where the competition's legitimately tight. So rather than just assume Expedition 33 takes everything, let's actually think through where the wins land.

Here's my call for Thursday night.

Game of the Year
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Game Direction
Split Fiction
Actual Winner:

Best Narrative
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Art Direction
Hollow Knight: Silksong
Actual Winner:

Best Score and Music
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Audio Design
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Performance
Ben Starr (Expedition 33)
Actual Winner:

The technical and craft categories are where Expedition 33 built its case. But the next batch is where things get interesting, because this is where other studios have genuine shots.

Innovation in Accessibility
South of Midnight
Actual Winner:

Games for Impact
Lost Records
Actual Winner:

Best Ongoing Game
Helldivers 2
Actual Winner:

Best Community Support
Helldivers 2
Actual Winner:

Best Independent Game
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Debut Indie Game
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Genre categories are where voters usually respect what each game does best rather than just picking the biggest name. That's why I'm not calling a clean sweep here.

Best Mobile Game
Wuthering Waves
Actual Winner:

Best VR/AR
The Midnight Walk
Actual Winner:

Best Action Game
Hades 2
Actual Winner:

Best Action/Adventure
Hollow Knight: Silksong
Actual Winner:

Best RPG
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

Best Fighting Game
2XKO
Actual Winner:

Best Family Game
Donkey Kong Bananza
Actual Winner:

Best Sim/Strategy
The Alters
Actual Winner:

Best Sports/Racing
Mario Kart World
Actual Winner:

Best Multiplayer
Split Fiction
Actual Winner:

And then there's everything else.

Best Adaptation
The Last of Us Season 2
Actual Winner:

Most Anticipated
Grand Theft Auto VI
Actual Winner:

Content Creator of the Year
TheBurntPeanut
Actual Winner:

Player's Voice
Expedition 33
Actual Winner:

If this plays out the way I'm calling it, Expedition 33 takes somewhere around 9 wins out of 12 nominations. The alternative is that voters decide to spread things around more than expected, which would honestly make for a more interesting night.